A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
